Nov 02 2009
Monday Morning Numbers
The big Series match-ups don’t seem to be living up to it, especially on the Howard v. A-Rod side. Howard has been a non-presence at bat (he’s done well in the field). His numbers are just dismal: 3 for 17, with 10 strike outs, only one run scored, and only one RBI. Compared to that, A-Rod’s first and second game slump seems almost productive. He’s at 2 for 14, with 7 strike outs, 2 runs scored, and 3 RBI’s. Of course, A-Rod’s two hits came precisely when they were most needed, with the dinger off the camera setting off the offensive rally in Game 3, and the clutch double tonight plating Damon for the ninth inning go-ahead run. With situation factored in, Howard loses the contest badly so far. The fact that A-Rod’s been hit three times and walked twice in Game 3 is only gravy, especially with Posada making them pay for the pass. Where is Ryan Howard? I’m sure Yankee fans don’t want this guy to wake up – though he still might, but Utley and Werth are really out there alone if Howard’s bat doesn’t start working. Just for a final number here: A-Rod’s 3 RBI’s are better than every individual Philly with the exception of Utley, who has 4. That’s a pretty shocking figure, given that Rodriguez had about as awful a first two games in this series as anyone, and looked to be back to previous post-season form. It would be interesting (in a modernist symbolism sorta way) if A-Rod’s turnaround in the Series was kicked off by dinging one off the teevee camera.
Very frustrating two games so far in Philly. A lot of bad at-bats by everyone, Rollins, Howard, and Ibanez especially. Swinging early in counts, popping up weakly in hitter’s counts, striking out with runners on base, with two terrible curveballs by Hamels and a couple of bad fastballs by Lidge thrown in for good measure.
But this has been Philly’s method of operation all year to be honest. Low overall batting average, fall behind in games, depend on big innings once you get into the opponents’ bullpen, outscore rather outpitch.
It’s not looking good, obviously, but if Cliff Lee can keep them alive tonight, I certainly expect the Phillies to score runs against Pettite on short rest and Sabbathia on short rest for the third time this postseason. But Rollins and Howard and Ibanez have to put together more productive at-bats in the next few games, get the pitch count up, get to the bullpen earlier.
And I can’t believe it’s been Damon who has killed us. Arrgghhh!
Howard’s performance thus far has been the biggest choke in recent post-season history. He needs a lot of clutch hits and soon to reverse that.
If the Phillies are gonna complete the comeback, I suspect the final two games will follow the same pattern as last night, where the Phillies chased (silly pun, I know) the Yankee starter early, got a big lead, then held on late.
Rollins and Howard had much better at-bats last night. Rollins was on base multiple times, and while Howard still doesn’t have a big hit, he did draw two walks and scored.
I predict a lot of runs in game 6 by both teams, with slow, grueling innings and lots of pitching changes. I also predict Utley doesn’t see a fastball in the strike zone.
Howard’s first two walks of the series, if I remember correctly, drawn largely because the strike zone was uber-tight last night. This is Ryan Howard we’re talking about, and you’re happy that he drew two walks and scored? Wow. Utley is fantastic, but he won’t see another pitch, especially with Howard striking out 11 times thus far: 4 for 19. If we see a comeback, it’ll be because Utley gets a pass and Howard makes them pay by finally contributing to the Series effort. A-Rod woke up from his early slump, and I know you and every other Philly fan near collapsed in relief when Texeiria struck out, the fear is so great at this point. But Howard is still watching third pitch strikes and looking like anything other than a clean-up All Star.
I’m certainly not satisfied with two walks. But bad umpiring or not, I am happy that he got on base twice, kept innings alive. Howard goes through periods like this every season, and he strikes out more than almost anyone in baseball. So it’s not like this is new. The Phillies manage to win many games when Howard strikes out multiple times.
Nonetheless, either Howard or Werth is going to have to make the Yankees pay if they pitch around Utley. Of course, if there are two men already on when Utley comes to the plate, as in the first inning last night, then you’re screwed…Burnett’s response to that situation was evidently to groove a first-pitch fastball in the same spot Sabbathia had tried three times already this series. Not a good solution. Phil Coke tested that theory one final time in the 7th to no avail.
I doubt he sees that pitch again, but…
Your confidence is admirable.
Not confidence, just analysis.
Far be it from me to interrupt a man while he whistles past the graveyard.