Seven Red

A few posts back, Chuck from Austin suggested that a better metric for predicting playoff success might not be the two that I offered (road record, late inning runs), but rather performance during the last two weeks – or last ten games – of the season. Having mostly gotten over the halfway point on that metric, here are the results so far:

New York: 6 – 0 (with 4 games left)
Detroit/Minnesota – I’m not even touching this one. Ugly for Tigers fans right now.
LA Angels: 3 – 2 (with 5 games left)
Bosox: 0 – 5 (with 5 games left) (!)

Phillies: 2 – 3 (with 5 games left)
Cardinals:  1 – 4 (with 5 games left)
LA Dodgers: 2 – 4 (with 4 games left)
Rockies: 3 -2 (with 5 games left)

It’s a big ouch for Boston, first of all, if the metric means anything. Oddly, the Cards performance is not a whole lot better, but the whole NL leader group looks like it’s fizzling. The Yankees keep winning games late, and did so last night with a bunch of guys nobody’s ever heard of – their 15th walk-off win this year. It might yet happen, of course, that the Yanks collapse in the first round, or that they walk into Tampa Bay and lose three straight and take that sting into the playoffs or something. I think the point here is that any way you slice it, they look formidable. Even on this “Last 10″ metric, it’s not close to a contest.

METRICS UPDATE, October 4

New York: 7-3
Detroit: 4-6
Minnesota: 7-3
LA Angels: 7-3
Bosox: 4-6

Phillies: 4-6
Cardinals:  2-8 (ouch!)
LA Dodgers: 3-7
Rockies: 6-4

I gotta think that having Sabathia get beat up like that on Friday night tweaks the last ten stat for the Yanks. That was brutal, and probably will make him a bit tenuous in his first playoff start. But still, the Cards record is ugly, and there’s not anything that much better in the NL. I sputtering close. I’d bet on Detroit to hold on. Reason: they’re not the friggin’ Mutts.

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